INTELLIGENCE' IS JUST GUESSWORK - TRIMBLE
Intelligence is just guesswork' - Trimble
BY ADRIAN MULLAN
FORMER First Minister David Trimble said this week that "intelligence" information is not fact, but only "unreliable guesswork".
On a visit to Omagh, the Ulster Unionist Party leader dealt at length with the question of security intelligence in the context of both the Omagh bombing and the pre-Christmas robbery of �26.5 million.
While he was not satisfied with the way in which the Omagh bomb investigation was proceeding, including the withholding of intelligence information by the Dublin authorities, he was satisfied with the presumption that the IRA robbed the Northern Bank in Belfast even before Chief Constable Hugh Orde reported.
At a meeting with the Omagh Self-Help and Support Group, Mr Trimble said, "There is huge disappointment that the tremendous investigation that took place at the time (of the 1998 bombing) did not produce results and then the matter has been complicated since then with all these suggestions that this could've been done of that could've been done.
"I think what these people (victims' families) really want is to get the investigation successfully concluded and the people who are responsible brought to justice. That's what we all would've liked, and it's a huge disappointment, but that really hasn't happened."
It was put to Mr Trimble that the chairman of the Omagh Self Help and Support Group Michael Gallagher believed intelligence agencies North and South of the border were in fact holding up the prospect of resolving the case.
"One of the besetting sins of any intelligence system is that they hold on to intelligence; this is a problem that they all have," said Mr Trimble. "They have a tendency to hold on to intelligence and to tell other agencies find other people as little as possible because it might compromise sources and so on. I "We keep seeing this. Any time there's an investigation into something you find that the intelligence people might or might not have got material," he said. "The other thing is that it is so difficult for people outside the intelligence world to be able to make a valid assessment of what is done. Because it is not this snippet information... (it is) the context... the reliability of the source, all these things matter just as much. It's a very difficult thing."
The former First Minister pointed to the problem with intelligence material on Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction.
"Intelligence is not information, that's the important thing for people to bear in mind. Intelligence involves an awful lot of guesswork and analysis and all the rest of it. it's not to be treated as being the same as hard and fast information and evidence.
"As to what the position is there, I have no idea what the detail is and it's a pity that we don't have some credible system whereby people could look into these matters rather than having these various inquiries"
The UlsterHerald put it to Mr Trimble that he was suggesting that intelligence was not entirely reliable, to which Mr Trimble replied, "Of course it's not."
Asked how that applies to the question of who robbed the Northern Bank, Mr Trimble responded, "What I'm saying is that when you're dealing with intelligence, there are judgement calls in it and intelligence is always patchy.
"Now, if you want to get on to the Northern Bank, I didn't need Hugh Orde to tell me who did the Northern Bank. You just looked at the operating method... you looked at the locations that were used and it all said one thing."
When asked if intelligence is open to political manipulation, Mr Trimble said, "Now you're just looking for cheap headlines."
Returning to the Omagh bomb case, Mr Trimble was asked if he felt that someone would be charged with murder within the next year or so. "It would be nice if that were the case," he said.
So does he have confidence in the investigation as it stands?
"It was a huge disappointment that we have not had a successful result before now. I still hope that there will be a successful outcome to it and we all must continue to have that hope and help were we can towards a successful outcome."
BY ADRIAN MULLAN
FORMER First Minister David Trimble said this week that "intelligence" information is not fact, but only "unreliable guesswork".
On a visit to Omagh, the Ulster Unionist Party leader dealt at length with the question of security intelligence in the context of both the Omagh bombing and the pre-Christmas robbery of �26.5 million.
While he was not satisfied with the way in which the Omagh bomb investigation was proceeding, including the withholding of intelligence information by the Dublin authorities, he was satisfied with the presumption that the IRA robbed the Northern Bank in Belfast even before Chief Constable Hugh Orde reported.
At a meeting with the Omagh Self-Help and Support Group, Mr Trimble said, "There is huge disappointment that the tremendous investigation that took place at the time (of the 1998 bombing) did not produce results and then the matter has been complicated since then with all these suggestions that this could've been done of that could've been done.
"I think what these people (victims' families) really want is to get the investigation successfully concluded and the people who are responsible brought to justice. That's what we all would've liked, and it's a huge disappointment, but that really hasn't happened."
It was put to Mr Trimble that the chairman of the Omagh Self Help and Support Group Michael Gallagher believed intelligence agencies North and South of the border were in fact holding up the prospect of resolving the case.
"One of the besetting sins of any intelligence system is that they hold on to intelligence; this is a problem that they all have," said Mr Trimble. "They have a tendency to hold on to intelligence and to tell other agencies find other people as little as possible because it might compromise sources and so on. I "We keep seeing this. Any time there's an investigation into something you find that the intelligence people might or might not have got material," he said. "The other thing is that it is so difficult for people outside the intelligence world to be able to make a valid assessment of what is done. Because it is not this snippet information... (it is) the context... the reliability of the source, all these things matter just as much. It's a very difficult thing."
The former First Minister pointed to the problem with intelligence material on Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction.
"Intelligence is not information, that's the important thing for people to bear in mind. Intelligence involves an awful lot of guesswork and analysis and all the rest of it. it's not to be treated as being the same as hard and fast information and evidence.
"As to what the position is there, I have no idea what the detail is and it's a pity that we don't have some credible system whereby people could look into these matters rather than having these various inquiries"
The UlsterHerald put it to Mr Trimble that he was suggesting that intelligence was not entirely reliable, to which Mr Trimble replied, "Of course it's not."
Asked how that applies to the question of who robbed the Northern Bank, Mr Trimble responded, "What I'm saying is that when you're dealing with intelligence, there are judgement calls in it and intelligence is always patchy.
"Now, if you want to get on to the Northern Bank, I didn't need Hugh Orde to tell me who did the Northern Bank. You just looked at the operating method... you looked at the locations that were used and it all said one thing."
When asked if intelligence is open to political manipulation, Mr Trimble said, "Now you're just looking for cheap headlines."
Returning to the Omagh bomb case, Mr Trimble was asked if he felt that someone would be charged with murder within the next year or so. "It would be nice if that were the case," he said.
So does he have confidence in the investigation as it stands?
"It was a huge disappointment that we have not had a successful result before now. I still hope that there will be a successful outcome to it and we all must continue to have that hope and help were we can towards a successful outcome."
Further Information
Publisher: ULSTER HERALD
Ref: UH/1802
Published Date: 17-Feb-05
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