BOMBING COULD BE FIRST IN A MURDEROUS NEW CAMPAIGN
Bombing could be the first in a murderous new campaign to provoke loyalist retaliation.
by John Deane Chief Reporter, PA News
THE outrage may foreshadow a sustained and particularly murderous bombing campaign in Northern Ireland and in Britain - and has already put loyalist terrorists under intense pressure to retaliate, a leading expert on terrorism warned.
Professor Paul Rogers, head of peace studies at Bradford University, said the bombers' intentions were clearly to destabilise the evolving peace process, both via the shock of the explosion, and by provoking a violent response from loyalist paramilitaries.
"The objective was quite clear-cut - to do their best to wreck the Good Friday agreement and incite a reaction from loyalist paramilitaries," said Professor Rogers.
There were recent indications that the Loyalist Volunteer Force, and the INLA, were coming under increasing pressure from associated prisoners to call ceasefires so that those inmates could benefit from the early release programme.
The bombing, as well as severely damaging the prospects of new ceasefires, would act as a severe provocation to loyalist paramilitaries, particularly the LVF.
"If there's no loyalist paramilitary reaction, the peace process stands a good chance of staying on track fully. If the loyalists hold back, that will be one of the few positive things to come out of this miss. But there's a real risk that they will not warned the professor. Such a reaction, if it happened, was likely to come within a week to a fortnight. The grouping responsible for the bombing appeared to have access to explosives, one or two quartermaster-type figures, and people capable of preparing and planting the bombs.
Last month, the Real IRA were cited as potential instigators of an attempt to plant firebombs in London. They were also suspected of involvement when, in April, gardai intercepted a major car bomb thought to have been en route to the Grand National.
Professor Rogers warned: "There may be further bombs, and they may come over to Britain as well. I have no doubt that they would like to try it. They are determined to try to wreck the (Good Friday) deal."
But, unless a major reaction from a loyalist paramilitary group complicated the situation the terrorists were not certain to succeed in that aim, despite the scale of yesterday's carnage and the anger it had provoked both the British and Irish Governments were determined to pursue the peace process.
And the random carnage inflicted on a mixed community could reinforce the desire of ordinary people in the province to pursue a peaceful resolution.
"This could simply act as a sobering indication of what could happen if the peace process is wrecked," said Professor Rogers.
A key question as yet unanswered was whether it was the bombers' intentions to kill and maim on such a scale.
Very few of the bombing outrages of the last 30 years had involved the deliberate mass murder of civilians.
If that were the bombers' intentions on Saturday, it reflected the depth of their desperation to destroy the peace process, and could indicate the emergence of a new tactic, frightening even by the standards of Northern Ireland.
"If they deliberately set out to do this, the implications are really quite horrendous. Any bomb can kill large numbers, but there's something different about deliberately trying to entice people into an area where there is a bomb.
"It could have been a cock-up; it could have been a unilateral action by the person giving the warning, or it could have been the intention of the group. If the latter, they could do it again, and it would be one of the most worrying things to come out of it. If it was deliberate mass murder, that's the last thing left to try to wreck the peace process."
Courtesy of Irish Examiner
by John Deane Chief Reporter, PA News
THE outrage may foreshadow a sustained and particularly murderous bombing campaign in Northern Ireland and in Britain - and has already put loyalist terrorists under intense pressure to retaliate, a leading expert on terrorism warned.
Professor Paul Rogers, head of peace studies at Bradford University, said the bombers' intentions were clearly to destabilise the evolving peace process, both via the shock of the explosion, and by provoking a violent response from loyalist paramilitaries.
"The objective was quite clear-cut - to do their best to wreck the Good Friday agreement and incite a reaction from loyalist paramilitaries," said Professor Rogers.
There were recent indications that the Loyalist Volunteer Force, and the INLA, were coming under increasing pressure from associated prisoners to call ceasefires so that those inmates could benefit from the early release programme.
The bombing, as well as severely damaging the prospects of new ceasefires, would act as a severe provocation to loyalist paramilitaries, particularly the LVF.
"If there's no loyalist paramilitary reaction, the peace process stands a good chance of staying on track fully. If the loyalists hold back, that will be one of the few positive things to come out of this miss. But there's a real risk that they will not warned the professor. Such a reaction, if it happened, was likely to come within a week to a fortnight. The grouping responsible for the bombing appeared to have access to explosives, one or two quartermaster-type figures, and people capable of preparing and planting the bombs.
Last month, the Real IRA were cited as potential instigators of an attempt to plant firebombs in London. They were also suspected of involvement when, in April, gardai intercepted a major car bomb thought to have been en route to the Grand National.
Professor Rogers warned: "There may be further bombs, and they may come over to Britain as well. I have no doubt that they would like to try it. They are determined to try to wreck the (Good Friday) deal."
But, unless a major reaction from a loyalist paramilitary group complicated the situation the terrorists were not certain to succeed in that aim, despite the scale of yesterday's carnage and the anger it had provoked both the British and Irish Governments were determined to pursue the peace process.
And the random carnage inflicted on a mixed community could reinforce the desire of ordinary people in the province to pursue a peaceful resolution.
"This could simply act as a sobering indication of what could happen if the peace process is wrecked," said Professor Rogers.
A key question as yet unanswered was whether it was the bombers' intentions to kill and maim on such a scale.
Very few of the bombing outrages of the last 30 years had involved the deliberate mass murder of civilians.
If that were the bombers' intentions on Saturday, it reflected the depth of their desperation to destroy the peace process, and could indicate the emergence of a new tactic, frightening even by the standards of Northern Ireland.
"If they deliberately set out to do this, the implications are really quite horrendous. Any bomb can kill large numbers, but there's something different about deliberately trying to entice people into an area where there is a bomb.
"It could have been a cock-up; it could have been a unilateral action by the person giving the warning, or it could have been the intention of the group. If the latter, they could do it again, and it would be one of the most worrying things to come out of it. If it was deliberate mass murder, that's the last thing left to try to wreck the peace process."
Courtesy of Irish Examiner
Further Information
Publisher: THE EXAMINER
Ref: TEX/019
Published Date: 17-Aug-98
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