PROVOS' KNOCK SEALS RIRA FATE
Provos' knock seals RIRA fate
The Omagh bomb deaths and pressure from London and Dublin edged the Real IRA towards a ceasefire. But as security correspondent CHRIS THORNTON reports, their former cohorts in the Provisional IRA gave them the final push
'IF all the blood and tears and anger of Omagh had not convinced them, the leaders of the self-styled Real IRA would have finally known the game was up sometime after tea last Tuesday night. In the space of 90 minutes in an operation that hinted at the degree of organisation that the Provisional IRA is still capable of each of the key dissidents heard the same rap at the door.
On doorsteps across Ireland, they found pairs of men they would have once called comrades clutching the same piece of paper.
Some were apologetic others were blunt and threatening, but they carried the same message: the Provisional IRA's Army Council declared the Real IRA had no right to exist and had misapropriated weapons - a hanging offence for republicans.
They were told that "action will be taken" if they did not make amends. Some of the messengers felt the need to spell this out: if they did not do the needful, the Real IRA's leadership would be shot.
And so last night, the seven figures who make up the Real IRA's Army Council met in a house not far from Dundalk. The urgency of the meeting was illustrated by the fact the need to slip Garda surveillance was put to one side.
Two weeks earlier, the same group had met in a house in Co Clare and failed to agree. Some argued that a ceasefire was a necessity in the climate after Omagh, but others, including the chief of staff, felt they could carry on with their campaign of violence.
In between the two meetings, the Provisional IRA made its threats. And last night, the Real lRA is believed to have decided it could no longer continue. The momentum towards a full ceasefire had been building constantly since the Omagh massacre, when the Real IRA made the short leap from town centre wreckers to mass killers.
First there was the wave of public revulsion that saw ordinary people across Ireland - people who would normally prefer quiet lives to standing up against violence - openly berating the Real IRA.
This had far-reaching consequences for the group. Any terrorist or guerilla organisation is only as strong as its roots.
Without low-level support - the sort of people who will occasionally hide guns, provide a bed for the night or even just turn a blind eye to illegal activity - a violent movement is doomed.
Against this backdrop, London and Dublin were openly preparing a security crackdown specifically aimed at the Real IRA.
Both governments passed laws that would give the security forces on both sides of the border more room to sit on the gang's leaders and possibly imprison them.
But this was not enough to cow the more hardened leaders of the Real IRA, each of them Provisional IRA veterans.
After all, violent republican movements have survived tough legislation and public revulsion before. There was no reason to believe that they would not do so again, given time.
But Omagh had opened up another front - it gave the Provisional IRA the freedom to move against the Real IRA.
Before Omagh, there was open animosity between the two factions, but the larger group, the Provisionals were restrained from moving against them.
"The Provisionals movement in the peace process has always involved a delicate coaxing of their supporters, and republican violence against republicans would have caused untold damage in the ranks.
What would begin as muttering about "doing the Brits' job, for them" could have easily translated into open defection to the dissidents.
And there was another important consideration. The Real IRA's chief had been in charge of the Provisonal IRA's weapons and took a substantial amount of Semtex with him when he left. He told Provisional leaders they would never see the explosives again if the moved against him.
But after Omagh, the Provisional made the first "offer they couldn't refuse" to the Real IRA: it led to the declaration of a suspension of violence.
The Provo ranks held and the Real IRA was on the back foot. The ground for further threats was set.
And now only the Continuity IRA remains as a republican group with a declared campaign of violence.
Many of their attacks have been ineffective.
But what remains to be seen is if they provide a haven for those Real IRA members who want to stick to violence but find the present atmosphere too threatening.
The Omagh bomb deaths and pressure from London and Dublin edged the Real IRA towards a ceasefire. But as security correspondent CHRIS THORNTON reports, their former cohorts in the Provisional IRA gave them the final push
'IF all the blood and tears and anger of Omagh had not convinced them, the leaders of the self-styled Real IRA would have finally known the game was up sometime after tea last Tuesday night. In the space of 90 minutes in an operation that hinted at the degree of organisation that the Provisional IRA is still capable of each of the key dissidents heard the same rap at the door.
On doorsteps across Ireland, they found pairs of men they would have once called comrades clutching the same piece of paper.
Some were apologetic others were blunt and threatening, but they carried the same message: the Provisional IRA's Army Council declared the Real IRA had no right to exist and had misapropriated weapons - a hanging offence for republicans.
They were told that "action will be taken" if they did not make amends. Some of the messengers felt the need to spell this out: if they did not do the needful, the Real IRA's leadership would be shot.
And so last night, the seven figures who make up the Real IRA's Army Council met in a house not far from Dundalk. The urgency of the meeting was illustrated by the fact the need to slip Garda surveillance was put to one side.
Two weeks earlier, the same group had met in a house in Co Clare and failed to agree. Some argued that a ceasefire was a necessity in the climate after Omagh, but others, including the chief of staff, felt they could carry on with their campaign of violence.
In between the two meetings, the Provisional IRA made its threats. And last night, the Real lRA is believed to have decided it could no longer continue. The momentum towards a full ceasefire had been building constantly since the Omagh massacre, when the Real IRA made the short leap from town centre wreckers to mass killers.
First there was the wave of public revulsion that saw ordinary people across Ireland - people who would normally prefer quiet lives to standing up against violence - openly berating the Real IRA.
This had far-reaching consequences for the group. Any terrorist or guerilla organisation is only as strong as its roots.
Without low-level support - the sort of people who will occasionally hide guns, provide a bed for the night or even just turn a blind eye to illegal activity - a violent movement is doomed.
Against this backdrop, London and Dublin were openly preparing a security crackdown specifically aimed at the Real IRA.
Both governments passed laws that would give the security forces on both sides of the border more room to sit on the gang's leaders and possibly imprison them.
But this was not enough to cow the more hardened leaders of the Real IRA, each of them Provisional IRA veterans.
After all, violent republican movements have survived tough legislation and public revulsion before. There was no reason to believe that they would not do so again, given time.
But Omagh had opened up another front - it gave the Provisional IRA the freedom to move against the Real IRA.
Before Omagh, there was open animosity between the two factions, but the larger group, the Provisionals were restrained from moving against them.
"The Provisionals movement in the peace process has always involved a delicate coaxing of their supporters, and republican violence against republicans would have caused untold damage in the ranks.
What would begin as muttering about "doing the Brits' job, for them" could have easily translated into open defection to the dissidents.
And there was another important consideration. The Real IRA's chief had been in charge of the Provisonal IRA's weapons and took a substantial amount of Semtex with him when he left. He told Provisional leaders they would never see the explosives again if the moved against him.
But after Omagh, the Provisional made the first "offer they couldn't refuse" to the Real IRA: it led to the declaration of a suspension of violence.
The Provo ranks held and the Real IRA was on the back foot. The ground for further threats was set.
And now only the Continuity IRA remains as a republican group with a declared campaign of violence.
Many of their attacks have been ineffective.
But what remains to be seen is if they provide a haven for those Real IRA members who want to stick to violence but find the present atmosphere too threatening.
Further Information
Publisher: BELFAST TELEGRAPH
Ref: BT/0652
Published Date: 08-Sep-98
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