ULSTER'S NEW YEAR OF HOPE
Ulster's New Year of hope
THE dawning of a New Year is an occasion which traditionally inspires an air of expectation. Northern Ireland stands on the threshold of a year which is full Of so much promise, but one which also has many potential pitfalls. At its best, 1999 could be the year in which this province finally turns the page of history, never to look back to days of conflict and crisis.
Yet the reality is that Northern Ireland is entering the New Year in a mood of uncertainty. Much has been achieved, but in many senses the real struggles lie ahead. The issue of decommissioning remains unresolved, while Drumcree is a painful reminder of the sectarian divisions which lie so close to the Surface. Yet to come is the Patten Commission report on police reform, which promises to be one of the hottest political potatoes of the whole peace process.
While progress has been made on many fronts on foot of the Good Friday Agreement, the one area which is still at a virtual standstill is disarmament. The only tangible success to date is the handing over by the LVF of a cache of its weapons, but the really tough nuts remain to be cracked. The IRA has made it crystal clear that it has no intention of decommissioning, and the mainstream loyalist paramilitaries are equally recalcitrant.
What is clear, as the New Year begins, is that David Trimble has no further room for manoeuvre on this key issue. He has drawn a line in the sand, refusing to sit on a power-sharing executive with Sinn Fein until the IRA makes some gesture on disarmament. This is a position which has been endorsed by his party and which secures general support among the unionist population and beyond.
The dangers of forcing Mr Trimble to give more ground should be obvious. His leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party could not survive any further concessions on the disarmament issue, and his position as First Minister would be rendered untenable. In many ways, Mr Trimble is now the linchpin of the whole agreement, and without him there would be major doubts as to whether the Assembly could survive.
Tomorrow's demonstration in Portadown is a further reminder that Drumcree has not gone away. Marchers and residents remain as intransigent as ever, and the longer the dispute is allowed to fester, the greater the souring of the whole political atmosphere in Northern Ireland. As we have argued before, the staging of a small and strictly limited parade along Garvaghy Road, coupled with a waiving by the Orange of the right to any more marches on the road for the rest of this year, is still the best hope of securing a compromise.
Much of the political focus this year will be on Stormont, where a new Assembly is due to come into operation in the spring. If 1998 was a year of symbolic change, 1999 should be the year in which those plans are implemented. Although everyone recognises there are major obstacles to be overcome, none of those who are opposed to the Good Friday Agreement have so far come up with a viable alternative.
While nobody can be oblivious to the threat which exists to Mr Trimble's role as UUP leader, he has in fact consolidated his position in recent months. In several rounds of tough negotiations, he showed himself to be no pushover. He is someone who has courageously faced up to criticism from within and without.
The heady optimism of Easter has now given way to a more realistic appraisal of the practical possibilities of the peace process. After the trauma of Omagh, we are a wiser but sadder community, hopeful that violence has been banished but painfully aware that the threat of terrorism still hangs over us. Yet the effect must be to make all those who believe in democracy redouble their efforts to make the nascent new Northern Ireland become a reality in 1999.
With renewed prosperity in Northern Ireland, there is evidence that the brain drain which carried so many of our brightest young people to far-off shores is being reversed. Thanks to the Good Friday Agreement, there is a new air of confidence abroad throughout Northern Ireland. Last night's remarkable open air concerts in the heart of Belfast were unmistakable evidence of a fresh vitality.
With the millennium looming, this New Year is a time for everyone in Northern Ireland to look forward, with optimism. The Assembly promises to usher in a new era of accountable politics, based firmly on partnership. For too long, we have been prisoners of the past. New Year's Day, 1999, is the opportunity for us all to resolve to work together for the good of the whole community. If such a spirit can be engendered, then problems which look insurmountable can surely be overcome.
THE dawning of a New Year is an occasion which traditionally inspires an air of expectation. Northern Ireland stands on the threshold of a year which is full Of so much promise, but one which also has many potential pitfalls. At its best, 1999 could be the year in which this province finally turns the page of history, never to look back to days of conflict and crisis.
Yet the reality is that Northern Ireland is entering the New Year in a mood of uncertainty. Much has been achieved, but in many senses the real struggles lie ahead. The issue of decommissioning remains unresolved, while Drumcree is a painful reminder of the sectarian divisions which lie so close to the Surface. Yet to come is the Patten Commission report on police reform, which promises to be one of the hottest political potatoes of the whole peace process.
While progress has been made on many fronts on foot of the Good Friday Agreement, the one area which is still at a virtual standstill is disarmament. The only tangible success to date is the handing over by the LVF of a cache of its weapons, but the really tough nuts remain to be cracked. The IRA has made it crystal clear that it has no intention of decommissioning, and the mainstream loyalist paramilitaries are equally recalcitrant.
What is clear, as the New Year begins, is that David Trimble has no further room for manoeuvre on this key issue. He has drawn a line in the sand, refusing to sit on a power-sharing executive with Sinn Fein until the IRA makes some gesture on disarmament. This is a position which has been endorsed by his party and which secures general support among the unionist population and beyond.
The dangers of forcing Mr Trimble to give more ground should be obvious. His leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party could not survive any further concessions on the disarmament issue, and his position as First Minister would be rendered untenable. In many ways, Mr Trimble is now the linchpin of the whole agreement, and without him there would be major doubts as to whether the Assembly could survive.
Tomorrow's demonstration in Portadown is a further reminder that Drumcree has not gone away. Marchers and residents remain as intransigent as ever, and the longer the dispute is allowed to fester, the greater the souring of the whole political atmosphere in Northern Ireland. As we have argued before, the staging of a small and strictly limited parade along Garvaghy Road, coupled with a waiving by the Orange of the right to any more marches on the road for the rest of this year, is still the best hope of securing a compromise.
Much of the political focus this year will be on Stormont, where a new Assembly is due to come into operation in the spring. If 1998 was a year of symbolic change, 1999 should be the year in which those plans are implemented. Although everyone recognises there are major obstacles to be overcome, none of those who are opposed to the Good Friday Agreement have so far come up with a viable alternative.
While nobody can be oblivious to the threat which exists to Mr Trimble's role as UUP leader, he has in fact consolidated his position in recent months. In several rounds of tough negotiations, he showed himself to be no pushover. He is someone who has courageously faced up to criticism from within and without.
The heady optimism of Easter has now given way to a more realistic appraisal of the practical possibilities of the peace process. After the trauma of Omagh, we are a wiser but sadder community, hopeful that violence has been banished but painfully aware that the threat of terrorism still hangs over us. Yet the effect must be to make all those who believe in democracy redouble their efforts to make the nascent new Northern Ireland become a reality in 1999.
With renewed prosperity in Northern Ireland, there is evidence that the brain drain which carried so many of our brightest young people to far-off shores is being reversed. Thanks to the Good Friday Agreement, there is a new air of confidence abroad throughout Northern Ireland. Last night's remarkable open air concerts in the heart of Belfast were unmistakable evidence of a fresh vitality.
With the millennium looming, this New Year is a time for everyone in Northern Ireland to look forward, with optimism. The Assembly promises to usher in a new era of accountable politics, based firmly on partnership. For too long, we have been prisoners of the past. New Year's Day, 1999, is the opportunity for us all to resolve to work together for the good of the whole community. If such a spirit can be engendered, then problems which look insurmountable can surely be overcome.
Further Information
Publisher: BELFAST TELEGRAPH
Ref: BT/0552
Published Date: 01-Jan-99
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