TERRORIST ROAD SHUT AT OMAGH
Terrorist road shut at Omagh
Even the most extreme of the extremists halted violence in the wake of the Omagh bomb, but Security Correspondent CHRIS THORNTON looks at the lingering question: will they make war no more?
AS THE trail of the Omagh bombers is slowly pieced together, it now seems almost certain that they had to retreat over the border to assemble the device that took and ruined so many lives.
The bitter irony is that, after almost 30 years of the Republic being seen as a haven for IRA men, it was into Northern Ireland that they came to prepare their fatal delivery.
After intense scrutiny by the Garda foiled most of their operations in the first half of this year, the so-called Real IRA suddenly found the recipe for terrorist success. But it was not, as expected, by rooting out an informer or recruiting people unknown to the security forces.
Instead, southern security sources believe, they moved into south Armagh and found the safe house from which to prepare their attacks.
Not long before Omagh, there were two blasts near the border - at a Dromintee roadside and on a remote mountainside - that were apparent mysteries.
It now seems clear that they were intending to shift the RUC and Army on to old ground: moving with painstaking care - if moving at all - through the hedgerows of south Armagh by reminding them that there was still a significant threat to their safety.
By keeping the security forces at a distance, they probably gave themselves the room to undertake the detailed work need to make the Omagh bomb. Then, having beaten surveillance, they were able to set it off.
The aftermath of the blast hit the Real IRA so hard that they called a suspension to attacks. It is believed that they may go further and call a complete ceasefire.
The main impetus for the reversal was the evaporation of any kind of sympathy or even tolerance that would allow them to operate in the Republic; more or less the same thing that forced them to move their bomb factory into Northern Ireland.
And so, perhaps unsurprisingly, some lonely farmhouse in south Armagh may stand as the last outpost of militant republicanism. That is unlikely to be enough.
Chairman Mao famously observed that guerilla movements are like fish and the people, their supporters, are like the sea. Without support, they die.
The fierce criticism that followed Omagh is unlikely to be what pushed the Real IRA towards ceasefire - after all, their leadership has been blamed for murder before - but rather the realisation that they would now find it harder to find people who will turn a blind eye.
The INLA quickly came to that conclusion after Omagh, and even alluded to it in their ceasefire statement: they would, they said, recognise the will of the people.
The Continuity IRA, which has maintained an undignified silence about Omagh. is nearly irrelevant. The only group which have not claimed a life, they have retreated from acts of violence in recent months and are probably dependent on the Real IRA for armaments anyway.
On the loyalist side, the LVF could probably find support for violence, but it is disparate and disorganised. Their priority is, at present, easing the regime of their prisoners.
Only the mainstream groups - the IRA, UDA and UVF - could still muster the support to carry on long campaigns of violence.
And, at present, they appear to have too much invested in the peace process to find the will.
Even the most extreme of the extremists halted violence in the wake of the Omagh bomb, but Security Correspondent CHRIS THORNTON looks at the lingering question: will they make war no more?
AS THE trail of the Omagh bombers is slowly pieced together, it now seems almost certain that they had to retreat over the border to assemble the device that took and ruined so many lives.
The bitter irony is that, after almost 30 years of the Republic being seen as a haven for IRA men, it was into Northern Ireland that they came to prepare their fatal delivery.
After intense scrutiny by the Garda foiled most of their operations in the first half of this year, the so-called Real IRA suddenly found the recipe for terrorist success. But it was not, as expected, by rooting out an informer or recruiting people unknown to the security forces.
Instead, southern security sources believe, they moved into south Armagh and found the safe house from which to prepare their attacks.
Not long before Omagh, there were two blasts near the border - at a Dromintee roadside and on a remote mountainside - that were apparent mysteries.
It now seems clear that they were intending to shift the RUC and Army on to old ground: moving with painstaking care - if moving at all - through the hedgerows of south Armagh by reminding them that there was still a significant threat to their safety.
By keeping the security forces at a distance, they probably gave themselves the room to undertake the detailed work need to make the Omagh bomb. Then, having beaten surveillance, they were able to set it off.
The aftermath of the blast hit the Real IRA so hard that they called a suspension to attacks. It is believed that they may go further and call a complete ceasefire.
The main impetus for the reversal was the evaporation of any kind of sympathy or even tolerance that would allow them to operate in the Republic; more or less the same thing that forced them to move their bomb factory into Northern Ireland.
And so, perhaps unsurprisingly, some lonely farmhouse in south Armagh may stand as the last outpost of militant republicanism. That is unlikely to be enough.
Chairman Mao famously observed that guerilla movements are like fish and the people, their supporters, are like the sea. Without support, they die.
The fierce criticism that followed Omagh is unlikely to be what pushed the Real IRA towards ceasefire - after all, their leadership has been blamed for murder before - but rather the realisation that they would now find it harder to find people who will turn a blind eye.
The INLA quickly came to that conclusion after Omagh, and even alluded to it in their ceasefire statement: they would, they said, recognise the will of the people.
The Continuity IRA, which has maintained an undignified silence about Omagh. is nearly irrelevant. The only group which have not claimed a life, they have retreated from acts of violence in recent months and are probably dependent on the Real IRA for armaments anyway.
On the loyalist side, the LVF could probably find support for violence, but it is disparate and disorganised. Their priority is, at present, easing the regime of their prisoners.
Only the mainstream groups - the IRA, UDA and UVF - could still muster the support to carry on long campaigns of violence.
And, at present, they appear to have too much invested in the peace process to find the will.
Further Information
Publisher: BELFAST TELEGRAPH
Ref: BT/0315
Published Date: 29-Aug-98
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