WHAT NOW FOR THE RENEGRADES
WHAT NOW FOR THE RENEGRADES
SPECIAL REPORT
EXTRA reporter MARTIN BREEN has researched the dissident republican groups known as the continuity IRA and the Real IRA - who
planned the Omagh attack.
For the past year he has traced the birth of the movements since Sinn Fein first split in 1986 - out of which emerged republican Sinn Fein.
Here he details what the future is likely to hoId for the Omagh mass murderers.
REBEL republican terror groups are unlikely to disappear -even though they massacred so many on the streets of Omagh last weekend.
But the Real IRA and more so the Continuity IRA may go quiet for several months.
Just like the Provisional IRA stood back in its actions after the La Mon House firebombing, which claimed 12 lives, and the poppy Day Massacre in Enniskillen when 11 people lost their lives, the rebel republicans could remain relatively inactive for several weeks unless the ringleaders are captured first.
The Dundalk based Real IRA has only promised to suspend its activities and may seem to fade into the wilderness until Bloody Saturday fades from the headlines.
As they claim to be engaged in a war against the "Brits "they will probably turn their attentions on the security forces rather than so-called economic targets.
RUC officers and soldiers will probably bear the brunt of any new campaign by the dissidents working hand in hand with the Continuity Army Council.
The CAC, although suspected of playing some part in the Omagh bombing, believes it has no reason to end violence for good arguing any attacks it mounted have not claimed any fatalities. Following the horrendous events of a week ago, targets will be abandoned for fear that another Omagh-type massacre could occur so soon and also due to expected heavy security in towns from Belleek to Belfast.
The renegade terror groups are believed to have only small caches of pistols and machine guns but they may tactically switch from the bomb to the bullet to catch security forces by surprise and make casualties more selective.
Their guns have only been brought onto the streets on a small number of occasions including the attacks on Lurgan RUC station, Belleek RUC station and border checkpoints in Fermanagh earlier this year.
Concern
RUC stations and army bases could top the hardliners hit list as they have little concern about killing dozens of policemen and women.
Special Branch detectives on both sides of the border are well aware of the identities of the Real IRA and Continuity IRA leaders who they have been keeping under heavy surveillance.
However they know little about many members who have never caught the eye of police officers before.
It is these inexperienced young paramilitaries who probably carried out attacks such as Banbridge and Omagh.
Republican sources have maintained that they never intended to cause the bloodshed in Omagh pointing out had this been their intention there was no need to phone even one telephone warning never mind two.
Bombers usually use another member to make the telephone warnings so it is possible he was unaware where the device had been left.
One security source told the Extra: The problem is that they are using men in their late teens and early twenties who are unknown to police.
"Many of them would have never been involved in terrorist activities before and are being manipulated by the leaders.
"If they did not mean to kill so many on the streets of Omagh as they claimed then it could be only because of inexperience among the members.
Naivety
"However it still baffles us as to their naivety if they actually thought no-one would die.
"It is unlikely that come this time next year the Continuity IRA and Real IRA will be holding to a ceasefire.
'All these animals seem to want is a period of reflection to take the pressure off them."
With the possibility of internment without trial being introduced by the Irish government many of the Real IRA and CIRA ringleaders could flee their homes to escape any security sweep.
They are now marked men and every possible movement is being watched by surveillance teams on both sides of the border.
Police point out this tactic has worked in the past on Continuity IRA leaders from Fermanagh and Monaghan who have not detonated a bomb in their lakeland base for over six months.
The Continuity Army Council devastated the River Club in Enniskillen in January with a 300lb car bomb but had another operation thwarted in March when 250lbs of explosives was discovered in Redhills. Co Cavan.
It is thought to have been only hours from being transported to its target in Lisnaskea town centre.
Attacks
However RUC and Gardai sources maintain that with a joint membership of around 130 activists both groups would have been using as many members as possible in planning attacks, building bombs and carrying out explosions in mainly Protestant towns.
Within recent months the centres of Portadown, Moira, Banbridge and Newtownhamilton have been wrecked by car bombs each about 500lb. Many of the operations were given the go-ahead at joint Real IRA-Continuity IRA Army Council meetings in both Co Louth and Co Monaghan.
It remains a possibility that both groups may merge although that depends on the Real IRA's future policy and the settling of minor differences between members and the political solution.
While the Real IRA and the 32-County Sovereignty Committee want a United Ireland with a single Parliament, the CIRA and Republican Sinn Fein favour Eire Nua-A New Ireland with four provincial parliaments including one for a nine-county Ulster.
Ironically it was because of security force success in thwarting the extremists bombs in towns such as Lisburn, Newry and Armagh that made the dissidents give shorter telephone warnings.
Previously warnings of up to two hours were delivered but last Saturday police had less than 40 minutes to clear the busy town centre.
The renegades face an uphill struggle in winning over former allies following numerous statements of condemnation from those who previously supported their operations for their success in preventing civilian casualties.
Earlier this year RSF President Ruairi O'Bradaigh justified the bombings to this reporter stating he supported the right of the Irish people to engage in the controlled and disciplined use of force to secure British withdrawal from Ireland."
He claimed that attacks in Markethill and Enniskillen were clearly "controlled and disciplined" given that no-one had been killed in either incident.
After the slaughter of the innocents in Omagh he was forced to hit out at his own armed supporters blasting their actions as "uncontrolled and undisciplined."
However another leading Republic Sinn Fein member hinted that the war is not yet over for dissident republicans when he warned there will never be peace until there is a British withdrawal.
Bundoran RSF councillor Joe O'Neill, a member of the party's Ard Comhairle, said, "I believe that there will never be peace in Ireland until the British withdraw. It is the British who are occupying this place.
"I am not saying that I do not feel sympathy for those families and would not like to offend anyone. I would not have any idea about who carried this out or know anything about it."
Gardai and RUC detectives will now have to try to discover the identities of the key identities of those involved in the bombing.
SPECIAL REPORT
EXTRA reporter MARTIN BREEN has researched the dissident republican groups known as the continuity IRA and the Real IRA - who
planned the Omagh attack.
For the past year he has traced the birth of the movements since Sinn Fein first split in 1986 - out of which emerged republican Sinn Fein.
Here he details what the future is likely to hoId for the Omagh mass murderers.
REBEL republican terror groups are unlikely to disappear -even though they massacred so many on the streets of Omagh last weekend.
But the Real IRA and more so the Continuity IRA may go quiet for several months.
Just like the Provisional IRA stood back in its actions after the La Mon House firebombing, which claimed 12 lives, and the poppy Day Massacre in Enniskillen when 11 people lost their lives, the rebel republicans could remain relatively inactive for several weeks unless the ringleaders are captured first.
The Dundalk based Real IRA has only promised to suspend its activities and may seem to fade into the wilderness until Bloody Saturday fades from the headlines.
As they claim to be engaged in a war against the "Brits "they will probably turn their attentions on the security forces rather than so-called economic targets.
RUC officers and soldiers will probably bear the brunt of any new campaign by the dissidents working hand in hand with the Continuity Army Council.
The CAC, although suspected of playing some part in the Omagh bombing, believes it has no reason to end violence for good arguing any attacks it mounted have not claimed any fatalities. Following the horrendous events of a week ago, targets will be abandoned for fear that another Omagh-type massacre could occur so soon and also due to expected heavy security in towns from Belleek to Belfast.
The renegade terror groups are believed to have only small caches of pistols and machine guns but they may tactically switch from the bomb to the bullet to catch security forces by surprise and make casualties more selective.
Their guns have only been brought onto the streets on a small number of occasions including the attacks on Lurgan RUC station, Belleek RUC station and border checkpoints in Fermanagh earlier this year.
Concern
RUC stations and army bases could top the hardliners hit list as they have little concern about killing dozens of policemen and women.
Special Branch detectives on both sides of the border are well aware of the identities of the Real IRA and Continuity IRA leaders who they have been keeping under heavy surveillance.
However they know little about many members who have never caught the eye of police officers before.
It is these inexperienced young paramilitaries who probably carried out attacks such as Banbridge and Omagh.
Republican sources have maintained that they never intended to cause the bloodshed in Omagh pointing out had this been their intention there was no need to phone even one telephone warning never mind two.
Bombers usually use another member to make the telephone warnings so it is possible he was unaware where the device had been left.
One security source told the Extra: The problem is that they are using men in their late teens and early twenties who are unknown to police.
"Many of them would have never been involved in terrorist activities before and are being manipulated by the leaders.
"If they did not mean to kill so many on the streets of Omagh as they claimed then it could be only because of inexperience among the members.
Naivety
"However it still baffles us as to their naivety if they actually thought no-one would die.
"It is unlikely that come this time next year the Continuity IRA and Real IRA will be holding to a ceasefire.
'All these animals seem to want is a period of reflection to take the pressure off them."
With the possibility of internment without trial being introduced by the Irish government many of the Real IRA and CIRA ringleaders could flee their homes to escape any security sweep.
They are now marked men and every possible movement is being watched by surveillance teams on both sides of the border.
Police point out this tactic has worked in the past on Continuity IRA leaders from Fermanagh and Monaghan who have not detonated a bomb in their lakeland base for over six months.
The Continuity Army Council devastated the River Club in Enniskillen in January with a 300lb car bomb but had another operation thwarted in March when 250lbs of explosives was discovered in Redhills. Co Cavan.
It is thought to have been only hours from being transported to its target in Lisnaskea town centre.
Attacks
However RUC and Gardai sources maintain that with a joint membership of around 130 activists both groups would have been using as many members as possible in planning attacks, building bombs and carrying out explosions in mainly Protestant towns.
Within recent months the centres of Portadown, Moira, Banbridge and Newtownhamilton have been wrecked by car bombs each about 500lb. Many of the operations were given the go-ahead at joint Real IRA-Continuity IRA Army Council meetings in both Co Louth and Co Monaghan.
It remains a possibility that both groups may merge although that depends on the Real IRA's future policy and the settling of minor differences between members and the political solution.
While the Real IRA and the 32-County Sovereignty Committee want a United Ireland with a single Parliament, the CIRA and Republican Sinn Fein favour Eire Nua-A New Ireland with four provincial parliaments including one for a nine-county Ulster.
Ironically it was because of security force success in thwarting the extremists bombs in towns such as Lisburn, Newry and Armagh that made the dissidents give shorter telephone warnings.
Previously warnings of up to two hours were delivered but last Saturday police had less than 40 minutes to clear the busy town centre.
The renegades face an uphill struggle in winning over former allies following numerous statements of condemnation from those who previously supported their operations for their success in preventing civilian casualties.
Earlier this year RSF President Ruairi O'Bradaigh justified the bombings to this reporter stating he supported the right of the Irish people to engage in the controlled and disciplined use of force to secure British withdrawal from Ireland."
He claimed that attacks in Markethill and Enniskillen were clearly "controlled and disciplined" given that no-one had been killed in either incident.
After the slaughter of the innocents in Omagh he was forced to hit out at his own armed supporters blasting their actions as "uncontrolled and undisciplined."
However another leading Republic Sinn Fein member hinted that the war is not yet over for dissident republicans when he warned there will never be peace until there is a British withdrawal.
Bundoran RSF councillor Joe O'Neill, a member of the party's Ard Comhairle, said, "I believe that there will never be peace in Ireland until the British withdraw. It is the British who are occupying this place.
"I am not saying that I do not feel sympathy for those families and would not like to offend anyone. I would not have any idea about who carried this out or know anything about it."
Gardai and RUC detectives will now have to try to discover the identities of the key identities of those involved in the bombing.
Further Information
Publisher: BELFAST TELEGRAPH EXTRA
Ref: BT/0220
Published Date: 22-Aug-98
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