REAL IRA FEELS PRESSURE
Real IRA feels the pressure
By Chris Thornton
THE so-called Real IRA's sudden halt to its terror campaign reflects the massive pressure the group is reeling over the Omagh massacre.
With the British and Irish governments planning an intense security crackdown, ordinary people on both sounds of the border incensed about the attack, and even senior republicans mounting stinging criticism, the group has been painted into a political corner.
But security analysts have already questioned whether the group's cessation of violence - and their statement last night did not use the word "ceasefire" - reflects the decline of their armed campaign or is simply a stratagem to relieve the pressure.
"As a direct result of the Omagh tragedy and also in response to the appeals of Bertie Ahern and others, we are currently embarking on a process of consultation on our future direction," the statement said.
"In the meantime, all military operations have been suspended from 12 midnight."
The group's spokesman said "there is no timeframe" for cessation.
He also repeated the gang's "regret" over the bombing and said civilian casualties were "never intended". He said the bomb was "part of the ongoing war against the Brits."
Republican pressure is probably the key to the shift.
History has shown that paramilitary organisations can ignore intense political, international and public pressure, but must make some response to criticism from its core constituency.
After the murders of 11 people in the 1987 Enniskillen bomb, for example, there was open criticism against the Provisional IRA from republican supporters.
The IRA leadership acted, suspending the unit it said was responsible for the attack.
That move was enough to stifle the threat to its support. The IRA's campaign of violence continued.
The Real IRA, still a relatively fledgling terror group compared to the Provisional organisation, is much more vulnerable to such pressure.
The group's political associates in the 32 County Sovereignty Committee are already, showing such pressure.
A Co Louth priest said the Vice-chairwoman, Bernadette Sands, telephoned him in tears saying she fears for the safety of her children.
The Real IRA may have also come under significant pressure from the IRA.
Several senior IRA members come from Co Tyrone and were probably affected indirectly by the Omagh casualties, especially among nationalists.
Whether the Real IRA has called a permanent end to its campaign or is merely looking for breathing space will be determined by the passage of time.
An internal argument over the next step is clearly raging, with one element in the group apparently believing that Omagh was a step too far.
But another section will press for the campaign to resume, believing the carnage was not their fault.
By Chris Thornton
THE so-called Real IRA's sudden halt to its terror campaign reflects the massive pressure the group is reeling over the Omagh massacre.
With the British and Irish governments planning an intense security crackdown, ordinary people on both sounds of the border incensed about the attack, and even senior republicans mounting stinging criticism, the group has been painted into a political corner.
But security analysts have already questioned whether the group's cessation of violence - and their statement last night did not use the word "ceasefire" - reflects the decline of their armed campaign or is simply a stratagem to relieve the pressure.
"As a direct result of the Omagh tragedy and also in response to the appeals of Bertie Ahern and others, we are currently embarking on a process of consultation on our future direction," the statement said.
"In the meantime, all military operations have been suspended from 12 midnight."
The group's spokesman said "there is no timeframe" for cessation.
He also repeated the gang's "regret" over the bombing and said civilian casualties were "never intended". He said the bomb was "part of the ongoing war against the Brits."
Republican pressure is probably the key to the shift.
History has shown that paramilitary organisations can ignore intense political, international and public pressure, but must make some response to criticism from its core constituency.
After the murders of 11 people in the 1987 Enniskillen bomb, for example, there was open criticism against the Provisional IRA from republican supporters.
The IRA leadership acted, suspending the unit it said was responsible for the attack.
That move was enough to stifle the threat to its support. The IRA's campaign of violence continued.
The Real IRA, still a relatively fledgling terror group compared to the Provisional organisation, is much more vulnerable to such pressure.
The group's political associates in the 32 County Sovereignty Committee are already, showing such pressure.
A Co Louth priest said the Vice-chairwoman, Bernadette Sands, telephoned him in tears saying she fears for the safety of her children.
The Real IRA may have also come under significant pressure from the IRA.
Several senior IRA members come from Co Tyrone and were probably affected indirectly by the Omagh casualties, especially among nationalists.
Whether the Real IRA has called a permanent end to its campaign or is merely looking for breathing space will be determined by the passage of time.
An internal argument over the next step is clearly raging, with one element in the group apparently believing that Omagh was a step too far.
But another section will press for the campaign to resume, believing the carnage was not their fault.
Further Information
Publisher: BELFAST TELEGRAPH
Ref: BT/0088
Published Date: 19-Aug-98
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